Occurrence of hail may cause severe damage e.g. of buildings and vehicles and, in the worst case, endangering of human life. Thus, there is considerable interest, e.g., to be able to warn in time before occurrence of hail.
DE 10 2004 000 025 A1 describes a system for detection, transmission, and analysis of data and information arising from electromagnetic radiation. This system allows for precise characterization of e.g. cloud-to-ground lightning and in-cloud lightning inside a cloud or between clouds. This enables three-dimensional locating of impulse emissions of natural and/or non-natural origin, e.g. locating of lightning, charge transfers, charge emissions or similar effects by low-frequency networks (so-called very-low-frequency networks or VLF networks). Electromagnetic waves in the frequency range 3-30 kHz (very-low frequency, or VLF) are named long-waves. In this connection there is no need to utilize frequencies in the radio or VHF regime (very high frequency, or VHF).
\WO 2013/006259 A1 describes a severe weather warning system that analyses data in connection with lightning activity and determines location, propagation velocity, propagation direction, and lightning rate of one or more cells with lightning activity. Then, the lightning rate is compared with a threshold value and one or more geographical areas are determined on the basis of location, propagation velocity, and propagation direction of thunderstorm cells.
The connection between occurrence of thunderstorms and hail events is already known. However, as is also generally known, one cannot expect hail events from each thunderstorm at the same time.
It is, thus, the object of the present invention to develop in an advantageous manner a system for identification and/or nowcasting of severe weather of the above-mentioned type, e.g. in such a way that hail events can be predicted with higher precision.
This object is solved according to the present invention by way of a system for identification and/or nowcasting of hail events which comprises several measuring stations for detection of signals related to electromagnetic radiation in connection with lightning, as well as at least one unit for time measurement in order to capture the time course of recorded signals, at least one analysis unit that is connected with the measuring stations and the unit for time measurement, whereby the analysis unit comprises at least one first module for lightning signals, based on the recorded signals, suited for generation of a lightning signal analysis comprising data related to lightning activity and/or quantity of lightning, and/or lightning intensity, and/or location, and/or propagation direction, and/or propagation velocity of the lightning, whereby the analysis unit comprises a second lightning analysis module for identification of at least one lightning jump event as based on the lightning signal analysis, and the analysis unit comprises a nowcasting module for the prediction of a hail event as derived from a lightning jump event.
The invention is based on the idea to check specific data related to thunderstorms with respect to occurrence of events that can be closely related to occurrence of hail. An event of this type is, for example, the occurrence of a so-called lightning jump. Here, the notation lightning jump may refer to an event that features an (strong) increase of lightning activity and/or an (strong) increase of emission altitudes at a certain time (and at a certain location). Based on such a lightning jump event the occurrence of hail can be nowcasted with high probability. Thus, when one uses a system for lightning location, e.g. the system described in DE 10 2004 000 025 A1, in conjunction with a three-dimensional system for lightning analysis and lightning location, and examines additionally the data received from this system with respect to occurrence of lightning jumps, occurrence of hail events can be nowcasted with very high precision. The lightning signal analysis can be a three-dimensional one. In this connection, both cloud-to-ground lightning and cloud-to-cloud lightning or in-cloud lightning can be analysed.
Registration of the current thunderstorm situation is made by measuring presently occurring lightning “strikes”. Measurement of strikes proceeds by recording electromagnetic radiation of strikes at measuring stations, and providing the strikes with a precise time-stamp by means of the time-measuring unit, e.g. with about 10 nanoseconds accuracy, and transmitting continuously to the analysis unit. Based on a TOA (Time-Of-Arrival) procedure, the exact position of a single strike can be determined from signals by the lightning signal analysis module. Hereby, in-cloud (IC) lightning and cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning can be distinguished.
The measuring stations can be configured, for example, as a measuring network and, e.g. can comprise more than 100 highly sensitive sensors in Europe. It would be feasible to utilize the measuring network ‘LINET’ of nowcast GmbH.
A total lightning (“flash”) is usually composed of several strikes of lightning. Using the so-called strikes-to-flashes algorithm the strikes are condensed to flashes. A flash can exhibit a combination of IC (in-cloud) strikes and CG (cloud-to-ground) strikes. Clusters of flashes and strikes (temporal and spatial) can be merged into a lightning cell. Computation of cells can be accomplished in regular time intervals or continuously. In this way, the propagation of the cell can be determined. Cells can split or merge, or dissolve.
During the three-dimensional lightning signal analysis, all lightning that occurs e.g. within a time period and within a certain three-dimensional space are determined with respect to lightning activity, quantity of lightning, lightning intensity, lightning location, direction of propagation (of the lightning cell), and velocity of propagation of the lightning or lightning cell.
In addition it can be conceived that the lightning signal analysis comprises data with respect to lightning activity, and/or quantity of lightning or lightning intensity, and/or lightning strength, and/or lightning location, and/or direction of propagation, and/or velocity of propagation of the lightning. Based on data with respect to the lightning activity, quantity of lightning, lightning intensity, lightning strength, location, direction of propagation, and/or velocity of propagation of the lightning, a lightning jump event can be determined, taken individually, or more precisely in combination with the second lightning signal analysis module.
Thereby, the lightning jump event is not only deduced via temporal and spatial accumulation of lightning, but based on the data that enters into the lightning signal analysis, it shall be enabled that at least one lightning jump event on the basis of an existing gradient exists, whereby the gradient results from the data that enters into the lightning signal analysis.
In particular, it can be further conceived that the lightning signal analysis comprises data with respect to in-cloud lightning and cloud-to-ground lightning. These data concerning in-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning are related with the existence of a lightning jump event and can be used for a more precise identification of such a lightning jump event.
In addition, it is possible that the lightning signal analysis comprises data with respect to the altitude of lightning, e.g. an altitude distribution of the lightning. Consideration of the altitude of lightning, e.g. by consideration of an altitude distribution of lightning, facilitates verification of the existence of gradients, pointing to the existence of a lightning jump event with respect to rate and/or altitude.
Data concerning altitude distribution of lightning may comprise e.g. data regarding the emission altitudes of lightning.
In particular, it may be data from which is deducible whether an (strong) increase of emission altitudes of in-cloud lightning has arisen or not.
Moreover, it can be conceived that the second lightning signal analysis module comprises at least one first comparison element and at least one second comparison element, whereby both the first and the second comparison element are configured to determine a lightning jump event independent of each other, and the second lightning signal analysis module is configured to determine a lightning jump event for the case that both comparison elements determine a lightning jump event.
In this way it becomes possible to deduce existence of a lightning jump event only in the case when two independent identification methods and identification elements in terms of the first and second comparison elements lead to the result that a lightning jump event has occurred. In this way the sensitivity of the identification of hail events can be improved.
Furthermore it can be conceived that coordinates of the lightning jump event can be determined on the basis of the second lightning signal analysis module using the time coordinates of the location of the lightning jump. It is possible, e.g., that using the time-of-arrival (TOA) procedure described in DE 10 2004 000 025 A1, the time coordinates of lightning allow determination of spatial coordinates of lightning, thereby enabling deduction of the spatial coordinates of the lightning jump event based on a determination of the time coordinates of the lightning jump event.
Furthermore, it is possible that using the second lightning signal analysis module and based on the determined spatial coordinates of the lightning jump event at least one area of probable hail occurrence is identified. Due to identification of an area of probable hail occurrence it becomes feasible to generate a specific warning with respect to probable hail occurrence.
In addition, it is possible that using the second lightning signal analysis module and additional signals related to lightning within a time period after the lightning jump event, an area with possible hail occurrence can be identified. It is possible, e.g., to deduce an area with possible hail occurrence, based on time and spatial distribution of lightning, spatial coordinates of the lightning jump event, propagation direction, and propagation velocity. In this connection, a rough estimate can be used, that starting with the identification of a time t=0 minutes, a possible area with hail occurrence becomes probable, e.g. at the location to which the corresponding thunderstorm cell with the at least one lightning jump event will have moved to after about 8 to 12 minutes, e.g. after about 10 minutes.
Furthermore, the present invention relates to a method for identification and/or nowcasting of severe thunderstorms. Accordingly, the method comprises at least the following steps:                detecting signals that are related to electromagnetic radiation in connection with lightning;        detecting the time course of the detected signals;        based on the detected signals, performing a lightning signal analysis that is based on data related to lightning activity, lightning quantity, lightning intensity, lightning emission altitude, lightning location, lightning propagation direction, and/or lightning propagation velocity of;        based on the lightning signal analysis, identifying at least one lightning jump event, and based on a lightning jump event, generating a nowcasting concerning a hail event.        
All structural and functional features, either by themselves or in combinations, related to the above-described system according to the present invention in all its possible forms of realization, can be also used according to the method described in the invention in order to achieve the related advantages.
Furthermore, it can be conceived that the lightning signal analysis comprises data related to lightning activity, lightning quantity, lightning intensity, lightning strength, lightning location, lightning direction of propagation, velocity of propagation of the lightning, in-cloud lightning, cloud-to-ground lightning, data related to the altitude of lightning, e.g. an altitude distribution of lightning.
Moreover, it can be conceived that a lightning jump event is determined at least with two different kinds of determination independently of each other, respectively, and that a lightning jump event is determined only when both kinds of determination determine the presence of a lightning jump event.
In addition, it is conceivable that based on time coordinates of the lightning jump location the coordinates of the lightning jump event are determined.
Furthermore, it is conceivable that using the second lightning signal analysis module and based on the determined spatial coordinates of the lightning jump event at least one probable area for hail occurrence is identified.
Furthermore, it is conceivable that a probable area with hail occurrence is additionally identified on the basis of signals related to lightning that occurs within a time period after the lightning jump event.